Growth Response of Scots Pine to Climate Change in the Latitudinal Gradient

The species reaction to the different climate change scenarios is simulated on the example of Scots pine offspring growing on provenance trials of the middle taiga subzone (Arkhangelsk region). Climatypes with different in the latitudinal gradient by 2-3º N locations of the original stands were selected. Pinega climatype (Arkhangelsk region, the northern taiga subzone) growing in the middle taiga subzone simulates climate warming. Totma climatype (Vologda region, the southern taiga subzone) simulates cooling. Plesetsk climatype (Arkhangelsk region, the middle taiga subzone) local for the test point is a comparative standard for preservation of adaptive features in the constant climate. Safety, growth and productivity of crops were studied. Safety reduction of Totma climatype is evident during the first years after planting. Safety reduction and then plantation differentiation of Plesetsk and Pinega climatypes are extended and shifted. There is a growth processes leveling associated with changes in climatic characteristics of habitats by the end of the second age class. Pinega climatype maintains the inherited radial and linear stagnation from even-age pine local population at the test point by 13 % and 8 % respectively. Totma climatype is close to Plesetsk climatype in diameter, but outstrips it in height by 10 %. The trunk diameter distribution of the north taiga offspring of pine is significantly different from the middle and south taiga climatypes. The corresponding indicators of initial planting habitats are calculated using the latitudinal growth coefficients proposed by I.V. Volosevich (1984) for crops of the same age. This allowed defining the indicators deviations under warming or cooling simulation. It was found that we can expect an increase in growth and productivity of Scots pine by 2-5 % with climate warming in boreal zone with an increase of air temperatures above 10 °C for each 100 °C of the effective temperatures sum. Changing of the growth indicators (diameter, height, trunk volume) with climate cooling (reduction of effective temperatures sum for each 100 °C) will be similar to the increase in temperature. Indicators will decrease 2-5 %. However, the reduced survival index of the south taiga offspring grown in severer climatic conditions (reduced safety during the first years after planting) can lead to a significant loss of productivity up to 15 % for each 100 °C of reduction of temperatures sum above 10 °C. The effect of the reaction can be mitigated by improving the forestry production quality.