Минимални водостаји Дунава и снабдевање водом хидросистема Дунав-Тиса-Дунав / Minimum water levels of the Danube and the water supply of the Danube-Tisa-Danube hydro-system
2015
Јосимов-Дунђерски, Јасмина (Пољопривредни факултет, Нови Сад (Србија)) | Савић, Радован (Пољопривредни факултет, Нови Сад (Србија)) | Белић, Анђелка (Пољопривредни факултет, Нови Сад (Србија)) | Летић, Љубомир (Шумарски факултет, Београд (Србија))
The aim of this paper was to estimate theoretical extremes of the river Danube minimum water levels, using the most common distributions applied in the hydrological frequency analysis. It studies the probability of the Danube minimum water level occurrence at the watergauge station Bezdan on the basis of the values observed in the period from 1956 when the `zero` watermeter was adjusted to the present. The conducted analyses refer to the conditions for the supply of the main canal network of the Danube-Tisa-Danube Hydro-system (HS DTD) with the water released from the river Danube at the main water intake at Bezdan. The Danube water levels that are critical for the water supply of the canal system DTD are ≤ +60 cm, ≤ 0 cm and ≤ -25 cm. The results of five theoretical distributions and three different scenarios point to the worst case scenario in the last three decades. The probability of the occurrence of the water levels ≤ +60 cm is 96-99%, while it amounts to 62-70% for the water levels ≤ 0 cm, and 34-40% for the the water levels ≤ -25 cm. The water levels ≤ +60 cm are expected every year (T = 1.01 to 1.04), the water levels ≤ 0 cm every year or two (T = 1.43 to 1.61), and the water levels ≤ -25 cm with a return period T = 2.50 to 2.94 every two/three years.
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