Game model in flood risk assessment: the case of the Municipality of Mexico, Pampanga [Philippines]
2017
Salas, G.M. | Calipusan, J.P.
The municipality of Mexico, a flood prone area in Pampanga [Philippines], was selected as the site for flood risk assessment (FRA). The municipality is bisected by several creeks and major water ways such as Mexico River, Bungang Guinto River, Betis River and the Abacan River, which is heavily affected by flood since time immemorial and continuously facing threat of flood events in the next century. A basic flood risk assessment was performed by combining flood hazard maps in different return periods (Q5, Q25, Q100) with population density maps at various periods (2015, 2030 and 2050). GIS-based Assessment, Monitoring and Evaluation (GAME) model, a grid system, was also applied in the assessment. Using 1.011% as the average geometric rate of population of the municipality is expected to increase from 153,624 in 2015 to 183, 090 and 229, 360 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Identified areas with high flood risk are Barangays Parian, San Antonio, San Nicolas and Pandacaqui. Using the GAME model, a total of 95 squares were identified areas with high flood risk for 2015 while 238 squares for 2030 and 2050 across different return periods.
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