Prognoza recoltei grâului de toamnă şi măsuri de sporire a fertilităţii solului

The present article discusses the methodology of forecasting the autumn wheat yield in early spring. The precipitations in the months of September – March are taken as a basis on whose account the water reserves in soil determine, to a great extend, the yield results. The dependence between autumn wheat productivity (y, q/ha) and the precipitations in the months of September – March (x, mm) is joined in the linear equation of the type: y=a+bx. This method can be applied when forecasting the yield at the level of the Republic, district, and agricultural farm. The second method of forecasting the yield is based on the estimation of humidity reserves in soil at the beginning of the spring vegetation phase of the crops by considering the multi-annual average amount of precipitations in the months of April – June. This method is applied when forecasting the yield at the field and crop rotation levels. The deviation of the obtained harvest with the estimated one constitutes, as a rule, ±15-25%. It has been established that the intensification of agriculture and the implementation of advanced technologies leads to a more rational use of water reserves in soil that contributes to the formation of the yield. In the conditions of intensive agriculture (1971-1994), the autumn wheat consumes 7.3 – 9.4 mm of water in order to form 1 q of grains. Soil degradation, nonobservance of the crop rotation system and of the technologies used for crop cultivation result in the intensification of pedologic drought, the increase by 1.3 – 2.0 times of the water consumption for the formation of a production unit, and the reduction of the harvest by 1.3 – 1.5 times. In order to obtain high yields in steppe conditions, it is necessary to direct the agrotechnical, agro-chemical and pedo-ameliorative processes to soil fertility conservation and rational use of soil humidity.