Application of hierarchical bayesian modelling to long term avalanche forecasting
2011
Eckert, Nicolas
Snow avalanches occur frequently in many mountainous regions in winter. Hence, winter tourism is strongly susceptible to avalanche danger, whereas it is a vital and growing economic sector for mountain townships. Furthermore, because of the limited space available in these areas, exposition of settlements to snow avalanches has strongly increased during the last decades. Casualties to back country skiers are relatively accepted by populations as soon as skiers evolve under their own responsibilities in risky terrain, knowing the daily risk level. On the contrary, casualties due to damages to infrastructures (roads and buildings, Figure 1) are no longer accepted. Indeed, whereas mountain inhabitants have had to accept a high level of risk during the past centuries, today's inhabitants, permanents and tourists, want the same safety level as everyone else in the country while they are staying in their houses or travelling on their roads.
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