MVSE : an R‐package that estimates a climate‐driven mosquito‐borne viral suitability index
2019
Obolski, Uri | Perez, Pablo N. | Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julián | Thézé, Julien | Faria, Nuno R. | Lourenço, José
Background: Viruses such as dengue, Zika, yellow fever and chikungunya depend on mosquitoes for transmission. Their epidemics typically present periodic patterns, linked to the underlying mosquito population dynamics, which are known to be driven by natural climate fluctuations. Understanding how climate dictates the timing and potential of viral transmission is essential for preparedness of public health systems and design of control strategies. Results: We developed the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) software package for the R programming environment. The package estimates a suitability index based on a climate-driven mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number (R0) of a well established mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses. By accounting for local humidity and temperature, as well as viral, vector and human priors, suitability can be estimated for specific host and viral species, as well as different regions of the globe. Conclusions: Here, we describe the background theory and biological interpretation of the new suitability index, as well as the implementation, basic functionality, research and educational potentials of the MVSE R-package. The package is freely available under the GPL 3.0 license.
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