Modelling the spread of invasive species to support pest risk assessment: principles and application of a suite of generic models
2015
ROBINET, Christelle | Kehlenbeck, Hella | van der Werf, Wopke
The estimation of rates and patterns of spread is one of the key steps in a pest risk assessment. Pest risk analysts across the world wish to make quantitative, scientifically defensible assessments of likely spread by invasive alien species. However, data and time to develop detailed models for pest invasions are usually lacking and the resources to test those models in practice are not available. Therefore, generic and simple models are needed. A generic spread module composed of four models has been developed to assess the spread of plant pests. Four different models were developed to represent differences in objectives, available data and assumptions underlying the assessment of spread. The most complex of the models simulates spread in time and space and has four biological parameters, representing population growth and dispersal. The simplest of the models has only one parameter and considers only geographic range expansion. A third model assumes logistic growth of invaded area and a fourth model assumes logistic growth of population density in invaded cells. All models consider climatic suitability and presence of hosts. Consideration of economic value is optional. This chapter describes concepts and application of these models. They are illustrated by case studies for western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, in Europe.
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