Развој производње поврћа у Војводини / Drevelopment of Vegetable Production in Vojvodina

The research deals with developmental, production and economic possibilities of producing important vegetable crops, as well as vegetable production in general. The focus of the research is on determining the state and the tendencies in the production and economic features of important vegetable crops in Vojvodina, including the cultivated areas, yields and total production, as well as the absolute and relative prices (price parities). The primary objective of the research is to define the development goals and strategies of vegetable production development in Vojvodina in the medium-term period, based on quantitative (statistical) and qualitative (SWOT) analysis and application of different methods and models for forecasting the production indicators (cultivated area, yield, total production) and economic indicators (prices, price parities and production costs) of important vegetable crops in Vojvodina. In order to achieve the primary objective of the research it is necessary to define and achieve a set of partial (secondary) objectives, including: analysis of the conditions and resources for vegetable production in Vojvodina; analysis and forecasting of the production, trade and consumption of the most important vegetable crops, as well as their economic indicators; qualitative SWOT analysis of the position of vegetable production in Vojvodina performed by defining internal strengths and weaknesses, as well as external opportunities and threats for the development of vegetable production; formulation of the development goals of vegetable production in Vojvodina and strategies for their implementation. The method applied in this paper is the method of descriptive statistics, used for the analysis of the described production features in vegetable production for the period 1991-2017 for 11 most important vegetable crops: potato, pea, tomato, cabbage, onion, pepper, bean, carrot, cucumber, garlic and watermelon. The value analysis, i.e. the analysis of the absolute prices expressed in euro, was done for the period 2002-17 (starting from the year when euro entered into circulation), while the analysis of the price parities of the vegetables compared to wheat was done for the period 1994-2017. Time series analysis was used for forecasting of the studied phenomena, and adequate ARIMA models were applied. The forecast was made for the following five-year period (2018-22). The forecast shows that in 2022 there will be significant changes in the areas used for cultivating certain vegetable crops. The crop which will be cultivated on the largest X area will still be potato (5.500 ha), followed by pea (5.400 ha), onion (5.300 ha), pepper (4.500 ha), tomato (4.350 ha), watermelon (3.300 ha), cabbage (2.700 ha) carrot (2.400 ha), bean (1.500 ha), garlic (730 ha) and cucumber (700 ha). In the future there will be large decrease in the areas used for cultivation of potato, bean, watermelon, cabbage, cucumber and garlic (mostly “field vegetables” that are grown in open spaces), slight reduction in the areas used for cultivation of tomato and carrot, while the areas used for growing pea, pepper and onion will increase. The forecast also indicated the following production of the studied vegetable crops in 2022: potato 169,000 t, pea 23,400 t, tomato 84,600 t, cabbage 87,000 t, onions 47,700 t, pepper 53,800 t, bean 2,100 t, carrot 25,200 t, cucumber 16,000 t, garlic 2,400 t and watermelon 144,000 t. The production will be higher than the average production in the analysed period for the following five vegetable crops: pea, tomato, cabbage, pepper and watermelon. The production of onion and cucumber will be slightly reduced, while the production of potato, bean and carrot will considerably decrease. The forecast of the yields for 2022 is as follows: potato 22.7 t/ha, pea 4.8 t/ha, tomato 22.5 t/ha, cabbage 27.7 t/ha, onion 13.1 t/ha, pepper 12.9 t/ha, bean 1.3 t/ha, carrot 21.2 t/ha, cucumber 14.4 t/ha, garlic 3.6 t/ha and watermelon 32 t/ha. In the last year of the forecast period, the yields of all studied vegetable crops will be higher than the average yields in the analysed period, with the exception of bean and garlic, which will remain at the average level. All average vegetable prices will increase significantly in 2022, as follows: potato from 183 to 195 EUR/t, bean from 1.333 to 1.492 EUR/t, tomato from 298 to 517 EUR/t, pepper from 310 to 530 EUR/t, onion from 178 to 198 EUR/t, cabbage from 19 to 170 EUR/t and watermelon from 118 to 146 EUR/t. The average price parities of certain vegetable crops compared to wheat will not show the same tendencies in the forecast period as the absolute prices. The price parity of bean will improve from 9.1 to 12.3; tomato from 1.9 to 3.5; pepper from 2.3 to 3. The price parities of potatoes (1.4) and cabbage (1.4) will practically remain unchanged, while the price parities of onion and rice will decrease from 1.5 to 1.2 and from 1.1 to 0.8, respectively. The defined development objectives of vegetable production in Vojvodina are: to increase annual vegetable production, by intensification of production by increasing the areas in protected spaces, by more intensive cropping practices and restructuring of production in favour of more intensive vegetable crops; to increase the value of vegetable production, by increasing the prices of vegetables, increasing the trade which shows a tendency of growth both in terms of the value and the quantity, and by increasing the turnover of processed vegetable products; to increase the export focusing on increasing the value of the export, which can be achieved by increasing the export of more highly processed vegetable products, increasing high-quality fresh vegetables at high prices and increasing the export of organic vegetables, which also have high prices abroad. The paper defines the measures and activities that need to be carried out at the following levels: macro-level agro-management of AP Vojvodina and the Republic of Serbia; scientific and educational institutions and associations of vegetable producers and processors; and vegetable producers and processors. The strategic measures of the macro-level agro-management for achieving the development objectives of vegetable production are: investments in vegetable XI production and processing, i.e. subsidising and/or refunding part of investments in vegetable production and processing; subsidising production costs and providing guarantees to producers and processors for borrowing funds from commercial banks for financing their ongoing production/processing; financing of scientific and educational projects; providing incentives and subsidising organic production, i.e. certification and stimulation of organic production; stimulating production of autochthonous varieties and hybrids of vegetables and processing the producers’ own vegetables; organising marketing activities at domestic and foreign events. The strategic measures of educational and scientific institutions and associations of producers and processors include: advancement of cropping practices; creation of new varieties and hybrids, as well as establishment of a bank of vegetable “autochthonous” varieties and hybrids; organization of promotional events and educational conferences. The development strategies for vegetable producers and processors should be directed to investments, certification of organic production, increasing seed production, good production practices, increasing economic efficiency and effectiveness, specialization of production and more aggressive propaganda.