Do Rail Transit Stations Affect the Population Density Changes around Them? The Case of Dallas-Fort Worth Metropolitan Area

This study investigates changes in population density in 454 block groups within a one-mile buffer around rail transit stations (the study area) in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metropolitan area. The research uses three analysis approaches to explore a correlation between proximity to rail stations and population density changes. Changes in population density between 2000 and 2014 are calculated. Changes in population density in the study area are compared to the remainder of the block groups within the four counties served by the same rail transit systems. An innovative approach is employed to select the best regression model using the data of the study area. A relationship between the independent variables and the changes in population density is formulated. The proximity of block groups in the study area to the nearby highway ramps or city centers is also investigated during the study period. Results show that it has a positive impact on population density. Changes in population density within the block groups located beyond the one-mile buffer, especially toward outlying areas, are greater than those within the one-mile buffer. Unexpectedly, it is found that an increase in the percentage of employed and white residents leads to an increase in population density. Other interesting results show that the number of jobs is in inverse proportion to the population density. However, block groups that are developed as part of transit-oriented development (TOD) are dramatically higher in population density than the other block groups. These results represent a beneficial contribution to the field of urban planning. Urban planners and policymakers can also use the findings to adopt specific policies for increasing density, advancing rail transit systems’ success, increasing transit usage, and sustaining station area development.