The Role of Agricultural Policies in Demand Estimate of the Most Important Plant-Food Commodities in the Coastal Region (Tartous Governorate)

This research aims at identifying the role of agricultural policies, in estimating thedemand for the most important plant food commodities in Tartous governorate, byanalyzing consumer behaviour and building an economic model, which allowsscenarios that will enable future prediction of the effects of policy changes on thedemand of these goods.The demand was analyzed for selected food commodities, including wheat and itsproducts, chickpeas, tomatoes, potatoes and citrus fruits, by identifying factorsinfluencing the volume of per capita demand (prices and income) and examiningtheir impact on demand changes.The research used descriptive and quantitative analysis of the data collected during2017, through a questionnaire, for a sample of the population, in a stratified randomsample, which included a number of villages and locations belonging to theadministrative areas of the governorate. The sample size was 384 families,distributed according to the relative importance of the dissemination of thesefamilies in the administrative areas.The methodology of the single equation and demand systems has been relied uponin estimating. The linear expenditure system (LES) was used to estimate demand,according to the study data, taking into account the single equation and Engelcurves. The current consequences of the existing agricultural policies wereevaluated, and several alternatives were studied and their impact on the estimates ofdemand for these commodities, through this methodology.The results showed that the average per capita demand for wheat and its products inTartous governorate reached 244 kg/year, 66.2 kg/year for tomatoes, 61.2 kg/yearfor potatoes, 34.5 kg/year for citrus fruits, and 3.6 kg/year for chickpeas. At thegroup level, it was 265.2 kg/year for grains and legumes, 208 kg/year for vegetables,and 64.7 kg/year for fruits.The total local demand for the studied food commodities in Tartous Governoratewas estimated at 215.2 thousand tons of wheat, 30.5 thousand tons of citrus fruits,50 thousand tons of potatoes, about 58.4 thousand tons of tomatoes, and 3.2thousand tons of chickpeas. The total estimated spending on wheat was about46.588 million SP, 3.411 million SP for citrus fruits, 8.691 million SP for potatoes,9.553 million SP for tomatoes, and 1.315 million SP for chickpeas.The results of the assessment of the consequences of the current planning policyshowed that no focus is placed on estimating the volume of demand, as there is alarge surplus in the production of some commodities over the need for local demand,at the governorate level, estimated at 225.4 thousand tons of citrus fruits, and 490thousand tons of tomatoes, in exchange for a deficit in meeting the needs of theindividual from other commodities, it is estimated at 200 thousand tons of wheat,and 2.7 thousand tons of chickpeas. On the other hand, potato production issufficient to meet local demand and to provide a slight surplus (1.5 thousand tons)for export or sale, in other domestic markets. The surplus in the production of somecrops to the needs of the local demand is considered as an economic loss, in theabsence of external markets for disposal.