A long-term study indicates that tree clearance negatively affects fledgling recruitment to the Blue-fronted Amazon (Amazona aestiva) population.

he Blue-fronted Amazon (Amazona aestiva) is a Neotropical parrot with a large distribution in South America, including areas in Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina and Paraguay. A substantial part of the population of this parrot is concentrated in the Pantanal, a large wetland located in the center of South America. There, the clearing of forest and savannas has occurred through the years to accommodate beef-cattle pasture, and crops. Our objective was to understand the direct and indirect effects of time, availability of forest and savannas, and rainfall over the number of nestlings and fledged young of Blue-fronted Amazons inhabiting the southern Pantanal. We surveyed their nests from 1997 to 2018 and counted the number of nestlings produced and the number of fledglings capable to leave the nest in each year. Additionally, we used available data on the area covered by arboreal vegetation, and rainfall data collected at a Meteorological Station located in a central area of the study, as predictors of the numbers of nestlings and fledglings produced every year. Then, we applied structural equation modeling to examine both the direct and indirect effects of time, arboreal habitat availability, and annual cumulative rainfall on the number of nestlings and fledgling per nest. Finally, we estimated the long-term trend of the number of fledglings per nest as a surrogate to the populational trend of Blue-fronted Amazon. We found that none of the variables in our model explained the number of nestlings in nests, but the number of nestlings and the arboreal habitat availability directly and positively affected the number of fledglings. Time indirectly and negatively affected the number of fledglings per nest, whereas rainfall affected it indirectly positively. Additionally, we detected a concerning decrease of about 30% of the fledglings during the 22-years study, which could lead to a change in the species conservational status.