The Portuguese orange market: an econometric study
1988
Cravinho, A.
The purpose of this study is to construct a model of the Lisbon orange market in order to explain the situation facing producers and consumers over the period 1968-1983. This was used to forecast the likely short-term future of Algarve's orange production, a growth sector influenced by the availability of water. It is based on two plausible scenarios: (1) continued current expansion of Algarve's irrigated area through opening of individual wells; (2) large-scale availability of water provided by the planned construction of 2 large, 15 medium-sized and 300 small dams by the State. It was found that the domestic market will absorb slightly more as incomes rise, and that producers are unlikely to shift supply to the extent of causing a fall in market price unless profitability is maintained through lower production costs (author)
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