On the variability of the Peruvian upwelling system
1989
Carbonell, M.B. (Universitat Hamburg, Hamburg (Germany). Institut fur Meereskunde)
The behavior of the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem is shown to be determined to a large degree by random events which make it ascillate between multiple disjoint states. The mean characteristics of these nonstationary random processes were identified partly as resulting from a correlated fractal noise process. Thus, any prediction of future changes of Peruvian upwelling ecosystem must consider its stochastic nature. Predictions relevant for management decisions for periods longer than some months ahead may be beyond reach. However, physical parameters were identified which are most closely related to changes of anchoveta biomasses than those commonly observed to characterize El Nino events. This allows the development of new monitoring schemes and will lead to a better understanding of the dynamics of the interface between physics and biology in the Peruvian upwelling system.
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