Examination of risk and stocking rate decisions in the mulga lands using simulation [Queensland; grazing; pastures; sheep]
1990
Meppem, A.J. | Johnston, P.W. (Queensland Dept. of Primary Industries, Charleville (Australia). Arid Zone Research Inst.)
A simulation model of a grazing enterprise was used to examine the economic risk associated with stocking rate decisions in the mulga lands. The model used historical daily rainfall records as input for determining annual pasture production. Stocking rates were set each year at the end of summer to utilize a portion of the available forage. Gross margins were determined for a total of 6 levels of pasture utilization (20 percent to 80 percent). The simulation results support the hypothesis that higher levels of pasture utilization lead to consistently lower pasture yields, and greater variability in income (high risk). To reduce risk, this simulation study suggests a more conservative use of the pasture. The value of simulation in examining the costs and benefits of different levels of pasture use is demonstrated.
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