Modelling future safe and just operating spaces in regional social-ecological systems
2018
Simulations of fish catch from India's Chilika lagoon are compared to conditions that are ecologically and socioeconomically desirable. The study builds on attempts to model safe spaces of experimental and real systems. Resilient causal pathways are traced back from pre-defined safe and just futures to conditions in present time. Systems modelling is explored in relation to resilience to driver interactions, feedbacks, and management in “future safe and just operating spaces” of an existing social-ecological system. The study develops a modelling approach for systems vulnerable to collapse, in order to operationalise future safe and just operating spaces for sustainable development.
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