Prognoziranje prinosa grožđa u Republici Srbiji – ARIMA modelovanje | Forecasting yield of grapes in the Republic of Serbia - ARIMA modeling | Прогнозирање приноса грожђа у Републици Србији – АРИМА моделовање
2023
Nađ, Damir | Gazdić, Danilo | Sredojević, Zorica
The subject of research in this paper is the yield of grapes in Serbia in the period 1990-2022. years. The aim of the research is to forecast the yield for the period 2023-2025 based on the yield in the analyzed period with the use of the Eviews software program using ARIMA modeling. The results of the analysis showed that in 2005, due to the lack of data for Kosovo and Metohija in the database of the Republic Institute for Statistics of the Republic of Serbia, a structural break occurred in the observed time series. After the analysis, the ARIMA (1,1,0) model proved to be the most adequate. Based on the yield forecasting results, it was shown that the grape yield will continue its downward trend in 2023 and 2025, while in 2024 there will be a slight increase compared to 2023.
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Editeur Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad (Srbija)
ISSN 0350-5928Cette notice bibliographique a été fournie par Matica Srpska Library
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