assessment of climate change impacts on climate parameters of Urmia Lake basin during 2011-2040 years by using LARS-WG model
2018
karimi ahmad abad, mostafa | Nabizadeh, Adel
Now days ,in order to providing the best mecanisms to damp the impact of climate change , climatology scientists need long term prediction of climatical variables and their changes. This research studies the impacts of climate changes on daily parameters such as: rainfall , min and max temperature and sunshine hours in Urmia lake basin. (Tabriz ,saqqez and Urmia synoptic stations) , selected as study stations , have long term gaged data for mitigation and Adabtation from 1980 to 2009. data prediction under as scenario A2 a type of GCM as HADCM3 model was used to simulate climatic parameters in 2011 to 2040 by LARS-WG model downscaled. Results show that prediction time distribution has been limited to short time in comparison to past decades .In other words the number fraindy days has been diminished , as far as in the future April will have the most decrease (7.5%) and February will have the increase (5.8%) in precipitation . overall , the precipitation max and min averay temperature of basin will increase about (4.3%) , (1.35 ) and (0.64 ) respectively in addition, November will have the most increase in daily max temperature (12.7) and January will have the least increase (0.33) in this parameter the sunshine hours of basin will not increase significantly .
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