Future study of rural social indicators affected by Corona based on scenario planning methods and cross-impact analysis (Case study: villages of Zahedan city)
2023
hajarian, ahmad
Corona virus is one of the infectious and infectious diseases of the 21st century that has spread from China to the world since the end of December 2019 and has had many effects and consequences on the social structure of various regions, including rural areas. Rural areas, especially in developing countries, are less prepared to deal with the direct and indirect impact of this crisis. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to study the future of rural social indicators.The results of the first stage were identified using Mick Mac software to identify 5 key factors (family health, anxiety and depression, family food security, family isolation, religious ceremonies and happiness) among 15 factors. These factors were used as the main basis in the following script writing. In the second stage, 15 possible situations were defined for 5 factors. With the analysis performed by Scenario Wizard software, 3 strong scenarios, 20 plausible scenarios based on 15 possible situations related to 5 key drivers were extracted. Also, the results of the study showed that the strongest scenario is that in the post-corona period and the effects it has on social indicators, due to the prevalence of corona, the health of rural households decreases. Anxiety and depression increase. The food security of rural households is also affected by the corona virus, but the isolation of the family before and after the corona does not change. People do not attend ceremonies due to fear before the corona.
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