Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance
2013
Sorte, Cascade J.B. | Ibanez, Ines | Blumenthal, Dana M | Molinari, Nicole A. | Miller, Luke P | Grosholz, Edwin D | Diez, Jeffrey M | D'Antonio, Carla M. | Olden, Julian D. | Jones, Sierra J | Dukes, Jeffrey S.
Climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may operate synergistically in the future. To date, the hypothesis that climate change will favor non-native species has been examined though local comparisons of single or few species. We took a meta-analytical approach to examine whether non-native species are poised to outperform native species in future climatic conditions. We compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that recorded performance measures of non-native (157 species) and co-occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, CO2, and precipitation conditions. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial systems, native and non-native species responded similarly to environmental changes. However, in aquatic systems, increases in temperature and CO2 primarily inhibited native species. There was a general trend towards stronger responses among non-native species, including stronger positive responses to more favorable conditions as well as enhanced negative responses to less favorable conditions. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, while sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.
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