Modelling the effects of forest landscape dynamics on focal species in Glen Affric, northern Scotland
2006
Hope, J.C.E. | Humphrey, J.W. | Stone, D.
Current conservation policies promote expansion of semi-natural woodland in order to offset effects of past loss and fragmentation. However, conflicts of interest may occur when such expansion would be at the expense of open habitats considered to have conservation value in their own right. Landscape modelling is presented as a method that may prove useful in resolving complex land use issues such as this. An example is given of a modelling system that uses forest dynamics modelling, focal species and habitat network analysis to address landscape change issues in Glen Affric, a key area for biodiversity conservation in northern Scotland. The results suggest that a dispersed pattern of woodland expansion may offer the best chances of achieving a balance between woodland and open ground in a single catchment. However, there are high levels of uncertainty associated with both model input data and some of the ecological assumptions within the modelling process. Landscape modelling is an emerging discipline, and further work is needed to enhance confidence in model outputs.
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