Breeding sites of a narrowly distributed amphibian, a key element in its conservation in the face of global change

Global change processes (including climate change, sea‐level rise, and land‐use change, among others) represent significant threats to biodiversity. These changes are usually studied across broad areas, and understanding their effects on narrowly distributed endangered species is challenging. Peltophryne florentinoi is a critically endangered Cuban toad, restricted to two coastal localities and potentially threatened by these phenomena. Despite its endangered status, few analyses have focused on threats to its survival in the face of global change. Current and future threats from global change to this species were evaluated using ecological niche modelling and multiscale geographic information system (GIS) approaches. Climate change effects were assessed by comparing the species niche with six future (2050) climate scenarios across its distribution area. Risks from sea‐level rise were evaluated by simulating potential coastal inundation under three scenarios of sea‐level rise. Recent land‐use changes were quantified using information on the loss of forest cover between 2000 and 2015. Within the species distribution area, warmer and drier conditions can be expected in the future. Sea‐level rise will not have direct impacts on the species range; however, occasional inundations and saltwater intrusion may present additional stressors. Although only ~2% of the forest cover has been lost in the species range and its surroundings during 2000–2015, deforestation trends were variable during this period, and future losses in forest cover can be expected. Considering these threats, and that the colonization of new areas seems unlikely, indirect and additive adverse effects on the species can be anticipated. These impacts will most probably be observed during the larval stage of this toad; hence, breeding sites constitute a key element in the conservation of this species. Long‐term studies and experimental manipulations may be the next steps towards a better understanding of the responses of P. florentinoi to expected changes. Initial conservation actions are proposed based on these results and the ecology of this species.