Forecast of annual water consumption in 31 regions of China considering GDP and population
2021
Xiangmei, Meng | Leping, Tu | Chen, Yan | Lifeng, Wu
At present, water resources shortage has become one of the important factors restricting China's economic development, and water consumption prediction is the core task of water resources management. In this paper, a grey multivariate convolution model with adjacent accumulation (AGMC(1,N)) was proposed to predict the annual water consumption of 31 regions (provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions) in China under different growth rates of regional GDP and population. The results show that AGMC(1,N) model has a higher prediction accuracy. In addition, water consumption in more than 50% of the regions shows a downward trend due to the growth of regional GDP. Because of the influence of population, water consumption is also on the decline in more than 50% of areas. The predictive results can provide a basis for water resources management in China.
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