The Roles of Greenhouse Gases in Global Warming
2012
Ollila, Antero V.E.
Scientists are still debating the reasons for “global warming”. The author questions the validity of the calculations for the models published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and especially the future scenarios. Through spectral calculations, the author finds that water vapour accounts for approximately 87% of the greenhouse (GH) effect and only 10% of CO₂. A doubling of the present level of CO₂ would increase the global temperature by only 0.51 °C without water feedback. The IPCC claims that a temperature increase of 0.76 °C for 2005 was caused in part by water (about 50%), because relative humidity (RH) stays constant in their model. The calculations prove that CO₂ would have increased the temperature by only 0.2 °C since 1750 and that the measured decrease in water since 1948 has compensated for this increase. This study has also produced results indicating a negative feedback for relative humidity. The simulations of this study propose that the IPCC's model atmospheres could be approximately 50% too dry.
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