Spatiotemporal Variation of China’s State-Owned Construction Land Supply from 2003 to 2014
2016
Jiang, Min | Xin, Liangjie | Li, Xiubin | Tan, Minghong
State-owned construction land is the dominant legal land source for construction in China and its supply influences urban expansion, house prices, and economic development, among other factors. Surprisingly, limited attention has been directly devoted to the spatiotemporal variation in land supply or the driving factors. This paper applied a centroid model and hotspot analysis, and created a newly increased construction land dependence-degree index (NCD) to present the spatiotemporal variations of China’s construction land supply magnitude and pattern from 2003 to 2014, using land supply data from 339 cities. A two-way fixed effect model was introduced to reveal the influence of the socio-economic driving factors. The results showed that China’s state-owned construction land supply area (CLSA) and newly increased construction land supply area (NCSA) both increased during the period from 2003 to 2014, the geographic centroid of CLSA and NCSA moved northwest. NCD showed an overall increasing trend, and hotspots with high NCD migrated from the east region to the west region and shifted from an “east hot and west cold” pattern in 2003 to an “east cold and west hot” pattern in 2014. The gross domestic product (GDP) has a U-shape effect on CLSA and NCD. The population, average annual wage of workers, and investment in fixed assets (fiv) have positive effects on CLSA, and fiv also has a positive effect on NCD. The increasing ratio of tertiary industry added value to secondary industry added value reduces CLSA and NCD, and the effects of state policies vary from year to year. Different land supply policies should be implemented for cities in different development stages.
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