Different responses of surface freeze and thaw phenology changes to warming among Arctic permafrost types

Arctic permafrost surface freeze–thaw (FT) changes related to warming could regulate the magnitude of global warming by altering the terrestrial carbon cycle and energy balances. This study investigated the sensitivity of surface FT changes to warming over Arctic permafrost regions by analyzing long-term changes in surface FT phenology from satellite remote sensing and meteorological variables from the climate data for the period from 1979 to 2017. Averaging over the entire Arctic permafrost regions, spring thawed date apparently advanced by −2.05 days decade⁻¹, whereas autumn frozen date showed weak delaying trend of 0.83 days decade⁻¹, implying the lengthening of the thawed season. Dividing the regions by permafrost types, advancing trends of thawed dates in continuous and high ice content permafrost areas (−2.57 and −2.70 days decade⁻¹) were stronger than those over the discontinuous and low ice content permafrost areas (−1.61 and −1.73 days decade⁻¹). The difference in changes in spring thawed dates between the regions is attributed to the difference in absolute magnitude of warming trends (e.g., 0.72 °C decade⁻¹ for continuous vs. 0.44 °C decade⁻¹ for discontinuous). However, the temperature sensitivity over discontinuous (low ice content) permafrost areas was 23% (10%) stronger than that over continuous (high ice content) permafrost areas for thawed date. In case of autumn, delaying trends of frozen dates were smaller over continuous and high ice content areas (0.69 and 0.74 days decade⁻¹) than those over discontinuous and low ice content areas (1.01 and 0.88 days decade⁻¹). This is mainly explained by the difference in temperature sensitivity (e.g., 1.57 days °C⁻¹ for continuous vs. 2.18 days °C⁻¹ for discontinuous) to warming between the regions rather than the difference in the absolute warming trends between the regions (e.g., 0.91 °C decade⁻¹ for continuous vs. 0.51 °C decade⁻¹ for discontinuous). The stronger temperature sensitivity of discontinuous and low ice content permafrost could be related to the lower demand of latent heat for the phase change of ground ice (or water). Overall, our results suggest that discontinuous and low ice content permafrost are more vulnerable to atmospheric warming. In addition to the magnitude of warming, the sensitivity to warming also needs to be considered when predicting permafrost FT changes.