Do systematic daily counts reflect the total number of birds using stopover sites during migration? A test with Eurasian Spoonbill

Many migratory waterbird populations are declining and wetland connectivity is a major conservation challenge. The importance of stopover sites has been typically assessed by peak counts of birds, which underestimate the total number of individuals using the site over a migratory season, especially in small wetlands. We analysed the accuracy of different daily count schemes to estimate the total number of Eurasian Spoonbill that stop over at two tidal wetlands during their autumn migration and compared them with the birds observed leaving the area each day. Total number of birds was obtained by combining numbers of each flock of birds leaving during the season. We obtained different accurate predictors for birds departing daily from each stopover area. Daily low-tide counts were the best predictor of the daily number of birds that stopover in a tidal wetland mainly used to refuel (staging site), whereas daily high-tide counts were best at a wetland mainly used to rest (stopover site). Each measure also accurately predicted annual trends for each area, respectively. Daily low-tide counts could be used as an easy census method to estimate the daily number of individuals using a staging site consistently during the entire migratory season, as well as indicating trends, without the necessity of estimating turnover rates. By contrast, daily high-tide counts would be especially suitable for determining the minimum relevance and the population trends of other tidal wetlands (especially the smaller ones), which regularly support moderate numbers of spoonbills during migration where birds use to stop over for less than oneday. This method developed for the spoonbill, a flagship and umbrella species, could represent a first step in improving the conservation of other endangered migratory waterbird populations.