Modeling long-term technological transition of Polish power system using MARKAL: Emission trade impact
2016
Jaskólski, Marcin
The need for technological transition of electricity production becomes a global problem. However, in coal-dominated Polish power system this need is even more crucial than anywhere, since technical lifetime of the most domestic power plants is ending. In this paper, the impact of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for CO2 combined with sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission trading mechanism on power technology choice was studied using Market Allocation (MARKAL) model of Polish power system. Poland can contribute to achieving ambitious EU CO2 emission reduction goals to 2050 by switching to diversified electricity mix of low-carbon coal technologies with CCS, and carbon-free options e.g. nuclear, biomass IGCC, wind onshore and offshore. This’low-carbon’ mix can be achieved only at high emission allowance prices, stimulated by the introduction of Market Stability Reserve to EU ETS and successive decrease in EU CO2 emission cap. At high emission allowance prices, Poland's CO2 emissions from ETS-participating electricity generating plants are expected to decrease in 2010-2050 period by 96-99%, depending on the projected electricity consumption. Model results prove that SO2/NOx emission trading scheme, envisaged in Poland, is not effective, in view of Industrial Emission Directive implementation, and should be reconsidered.
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