The conservation of migratory fishes in the second largest river basin of South America depends on the creation of new protected areas

Freshwater ecosystems, providing valuable goods and services to humans, have been subjected to multiple human impacts, among which climate change plays a central role in threats to species. It is expected that protected areas, the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation efforts, will assume a decisive role in protecting freshwater species from the impacts of climate change. This study assessed the effects of climate change on migratory fish of the second largest neotropical river basin, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas in safeguarding fish species, and hence the ecological functions that they perform and the ecosystem resources that they provide. The present range of 23 migratory fish of economic interest in the Paraná–Paraguay basin was estimated and the responses to future climatic shifts projected to the middle and end of the 21st century were examined, quantifying predictive uncertainties. Changes and losses of climatically suitable areas will trigger severe contractions in range, with the greatest impact on the most valuable species in commercial fishing, where range losses are likely to surpass 65% in the future. The main channel of the Upper Paraná River and tributaries of its left margin are projected to serve as climatic refuges for many species, and such regions are not affected by high predictive uncertainty. The results revealed that protected areas do not sufficiently protect migratory fish at present, and that they will continue to offer negligible protection in the face of climate change. This study alerts decision makers to the potential damage to inland fishery resources from climate change and provides useful information to guide conservation strategies spatially. We advocate that the creation of new protected areas and the redesign of the existing network to encompass regions that maximize current and future occupancy of migratory fish are crucial to conserve the valuable ecological, societal, and economic benefits that they provide.