Quantify the role of anthropogenic emission and meteorology on air pollution using machine learning approach: A case study of PM2.5 during the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei Province, China

Liu, Hongwei; Yue, Fange; Xie, Zhouqing

Quantify the role of anthropogenic emission and meteorology on air pollution using machine learning approach: A case study of PM2.5 during the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei Province, China

2022

Liu, Hongwei | Yue, Fange | Xie, Zhouqing

Air pollution is becoming serious in developing country, and how to quantify the role of local emission and/or meteorological factors is very important for government to implement policy to control pollution. Here, we use a random forest model, a machine learning (ML) approach, combined with a de-weather method to analyze the PM₂.₅ level during the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei Province. The results show that changes in anthropogenic emissions have reduced PM₂.₅ concentrations in February and March 2020 by about 33.3% compared to the same period in 2019, while changes in meteorological conditions have increased PM₂.₅ concentrations by about 8.8%. Moreover, the impact of meteorological conditions is more significant in the central region, which is likely to be related to regional transport. After excluding the contribution of meteorological conditions, the PM₂.₅ concentration in Hubei Province in February and March 2020 is lower than the secondary standard of China (35 μ g/m³). Our estimates also indicate that under similar meteorological conditions as in February and March 2019, an emission reduction intensity equivalent to about 48% of the emission reduction intensity during the lockdown may bring the annual average PM₂.₅ concentration to the standard (35 μ g/m³). Our study shows that machine learning is a powerful tool to quantify the influencing factors of PM₂.₅, and the results further emphasize the need for scientific emission reduction as well as joint regional control measures in future.

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