Using Bayesian networks to evaluate how agricultural water distribution systems handle the water-food-energy nexus

Kamrani, Kazem; Roozbahani, Abbas; Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy

Using Bayesian networks to evaluate how agricultural water distribution systems handle the water-food-energy nexus

2020

Kamrani, Kazem | Roozbahani, Abbas | Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy

This study proposes a performance appraisal framework for agricultural water distribution systems based on the Water-Food-Energy Nexus perspective. To analyze and evaluate agricultural water distribution systems with this framework, various methods of improving the operational management were developed and tested under the conventional and water shortages in operational scenarios. The Water-Food-Energy Nexus indicators were then calculated for performance appraisal of the water distribution systems in a study area, located in central Iran. The results indicated that by upgrading the manual operation to an automatic control system, gave the best results from the nexus indicators perspectives. The Bayesian Network model was used to present a probabilistic approach that could assist managers and decision-makers in evaluating the performance of the system, based on the nexus perspective. For this purpose, various configurations of the Bayesian Network structures were developed based on an export-oriented approach, and the most appropriate model was determined for the test case. The calibration and validation process of the selected configuration approved a high accuracy in fulfilling the objective of the study. The developed framework can be employed as a decision support model to prioritize options for modernizing agricultural water distribution systems.

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