Carbon stocks and timber harvest. Alternative policy approaches for the Great Bear rainforest and their consequences

Forest policy-making can be dramatically enhanced by implementing computer based decision support systems (DSS) during the development phase. While stakeholders usually agree on general policy objectives, the best course of action for achieving them is often unclear. Forest DSS can support the assessment of alternative forest policy frameworks with respect to their impact on multiple variables of interest for stakeholders and decision makers, yet, these tools are often underutilised.In January 2016 a new land use order policy for the Great Bear Rainforest (GBR) in Canada, the largest coastal temperate rainforest in the world, was legally established. The GBR order aims to support ecosystem-based management and legally binding objectives to ensure the long term health of this unique area. This new policy framework will lead to a dramatic decrease in timber harvest levels. We developed 5 alternative forest management scenarios with a less abrupt decline in harvest levels, including carbon sequestration as an option to economically buffer the expected declines in yield. We modelled the development of the forest resources in the area under each scenario over a timeframe of 350years. In doing so we were able to show how the use of computer based DSS is able to assist policy making by providing a comprehensive assessment of consequences associated with the alternatives, to ensure that long term targets are met.Our results show that currently, the GBR stores around 1.73Bt carbon, a number that will increase to 1.84Bt under the GBR order. While it is possible to increase carbon storage by up to 8% when lowering overall timber harvest by 36% over a timeframe of 350years, naturally, those scenarios with a less dramatic decline in timber harvest were related to an overall lower level of carbon stocks. Combined approaches though, which allow balancing timber harvests with ecosystem integrity, are a powerful alternative to a dramatic and abrupt decrease in harvest levels. The success of combined approaches does heavily depend on timber and carbon markets though. With notoriously cyclical markets the long term economy related to the implementation of the new GBR order remains uncertain when looking at carbon and timber markets only, strongly suggesting to rely on diversification and the creation of added value products.