Acreage Response to Weather, Yield, and Price
2010
Weersink, Alfons | Cabas, Juan H. | Olale, Edward
This paper examines the effect of weather on the distribution of yield and its subsequent impact on the acreage allocation decisions of crop farmers in Ontario. The mean and variance of yield are estimated for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat for eight counties in Ontario over a 26-year period. The predicted parameters of the yield distribution are then used along with expectations on the distribution of crop price to estimate area response functions. A principal contribution of the paper is the decomposition of the revenue impact on crop area allocation into separate average and variance contributions for both price and yield. This decomposition illustrates the importance of expected yield in the area allocation decisions. Crop yield is especially influenced by the length of the growing season and this has a significant impact on acreage allocations. This implies that crop area will be altered in response to expected changes in climate, even without shifts in crop prices.
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