How does “the Belt and Road” and the Sino-US trade conflict affect global and Chinese CO2 emissions?
2020
Fan, Jing-Li | Dong, Yangyang | Zhang, Xian
In the context of the rapid development of the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative, the continuous transfer of Sino-US trade to the B&R countries is an important means to mitigate the threat of Sino-US trade, and the environmental impact of this transfer should be considered, so as to provide a scientific basis for China’s policy formulation about achieving this possible trade transfer with minimized environmental impacts. This study proposes a multiregional input-output model and analyzes the impact on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of transferring the Sino-US trade to the B&R countries for two types of scenarios. The results show the following: (1) A transfer of either the import trade or the export trade increases global and Chinese CO₂ emissions by 81.76 Mt and 24.84 Mt, respectively. When both the import trade and export trade are transferred, the increases in CO₂ emissions are only 0.22% and 0.26%, respectively. (2) Globally, the changes in international trade-embodied CO₂ emissions are responsible for most of the global emission changes, especially the CO₂ emissions exported from Russia, India, and many Southeast Asian countries to China. (3) Different from the impact on global emissions, the increases in Chinese domestic production-based CO₂ emissions influence China’s total CO₂ emissions. Due to the imported CO₂ emissions, the consumption-based CO₂ emissions are affected to a greater degree and increase by 70.30 Mt, accounting for only 0.86% of the CO₂ emissions in 2015. Finally, some policy implications are proposed.
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