Understanding relationships between conflicting human uses and coastal ecosystems status: A geospatial modeling approach

Human use of ecosystem resources and services is increasing worldwide, generating pressures that alter ecosystem structure, functioning and provision of services. Unexpected ecosystem change is becoming frequent, and the complex ways through which multiple human pressures may interact leave conservation practitioners and natural resource managers faced with high uncertainty. We developed a geospatial approach for modeling the complex relationships between multiple human pressures and coastal ecosystems status. This framework was then used to produce maps of the expected status of marine coastal ecosystems resulting from variation in the cumulative human pressure. The geospatial modeling approach we developed was tested on an emblematic study case requiring marine spatial planning, i.e. a recently established marine protected area (MPA) that will have to coexist with the expansion of a close commercial harbor. In the study case presented, our modeling approach was used to predict the status of coastal ecosystems resulting from different management alternatives. Results showed that should Port Authority support MPA in reducing human pressures in the area, coastal ecosystems would not be expected to further deteriorate as a consequence of harbor expansion. Our approach proved effective in modeling complex interaction among multiple pressures (e.g. synergisms) and predicting potential future scenarios. The implementation of this approach into geographical information systems (GIS) allows managers to represent the expected outcomes of their planned conservation efforts, thereby representing an important decision-support tool for finding efficient management solutions in the face of complex interactions and high uncertainty.