Bridging the gap between ideotype and genotype: Challenges and prospects for modelling as exemplified by the case of adapting wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) phenology to climate change in France

Simulations using crop models can assist designing ideotypes for current and future agricultural conditions. This approach consists in running simulations for different “in silico genotypes” obtained by varying the most sensitive genotypic parameters of these models, and analyzing results obtained for different environments, so as to identify the best genotypes for a target population of environments. However, this approach has rarely been used to guide commercial breeding programs so far. In this paper, we attempt to address some of the gaps yet to be filled before this kind of approach can be implemented, and identify some remaining issues that should be addressed in future research. Our focus is on optimizing wheat phenology, integrating simulations from a modified version of the ARCWHEAT model of wheat growth stages with available knowledge on the genetic control of wheat phenology obtained via molecular markers. Based on simulations, stem extension could be advanced by 10 days in 2025–2049 without increasing frost risks, thus opening up opportunities for lengthening the rapid growth period. Analysis of the current genetic variability for major phenology genes in French elite varieties, showed that the insensitive PpdD1—spring Vrn3 allele combination appears undesirable and current genotypes with early stem extensions are unstable (i.e. show a strong response to temperature and can start the stem extension very early in case of mild winter temperatures). We finally use a case study on gene-based modelling of wheat phenology in France to illustrate how it can be used to dissect the genetic basis of the quantitative nature of the three components of earliness, beyond the effects of major genes. We identify the need to link the variability for optimized model parameters and the allelic variations at the gene level as a critical step of this type of approach.