The sequential collaborative relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in the rapid urbanization of the Pearl River Delta

In a rapid urbanization context, socio-economic development has caused large increases in carbon emissions. In this study, various techniques such as cointegration analysis, vector autoregression, and decoupling elastic function methods are applied to analyze the sequential collaborative relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in the process of urbanization in terms of the time-series lag relationship and the decoupling relationship. The main findings are as follows: (1) urbanization and carbon emissions displayed a temporal correlation relation with a lag of order 4, according to stability tests, and (2) the development of urbanization, economic growth, and changes in land use may be responsible for the time lag in carbon emissions. Furthermore, the mechanisms behind the effect of urbanization on carbon emissions are investigated to assist future carbon emissions reduction efforts. (3) From 1990 to 2014, carbon emissions and economic development showed a temporal evolution trend of “weak decoupling–expansionary coupling–weak decoupling” in the Pearl River Delta region, and there was an overall weak decoupling state: carbon emissions increased with growth in economic development, but the emissions growth rate was lower than the speed of economic development. (4) From 1990 to 2014, economic development showed a trend of sustained growth in the Pearl River Delta region, and differences were detected in the decoupling status between carbon emissions and economic development at different times. The overall decoupling status of the nine cities in the region was one of weak decoupling; however, the decoupling index, carbon emissions, and economic development levels displayed differences, whereby cities with high carbon emissions and high economic development levels were not necessarily the cities in which environmental pressures from economic development were the most severe. Our results have important theoretical and practical significance as they clarify the impact of economic development on carbon emissions in the process of urbanization, as well as the carbon emissions reduction work that must be undertaken in urban systems.