Dairying in the Antipodes: recent past, near prospects

The majority of dairy farmers and processors in Australia and New Zealand are considered world class due to their ability to produce dairy products at a cost that is competitive on the world market without requirement for subsidy. International and domestic forces beyond the farm influence the international competitiveness of Antipodean dairy systems, as much or more than, the within-farm characteristics of the systems. Critical external forces include: world population growth, protein demand from increasingly wealthy developing countries, dairy supply from domestic and international producers, international dairy prices and exchange rate volatility. Within farm, the keys to persistent profitability, business survival, and growth will continue to be management ability and labour skill as well as the relationship between milksolids (milk fat + milk protein) produced per system and total production costs. Domestic forces will include competition for resources such as land, water, quality labour and capital, and public expectation that farms will meet the costs of community environmental and welfare objectives. Public and industry investment in research, development and extension in innovations that increase productivity is essential if dairying is to remain competitive. The operation of the comparative advantage principle determines which industries thrive, or decline, in an economy. New Zealand dairying has a strong comparative advantage over alternative pastoral industries which will continue. In Australia, the comparative advantage of dairy farming over alternative activities is less clear-cut. History shows that the best farmers and processors handle risks such as market and climate volatility and other challenges better than others, and their prospects are positive. However, world class performers in the future dairy industry will certainly not be all, or even the majority, of the current population of dairy farmers.