Nonresponse bias corrections for the 1990 SWCS survey of Conservation Reserve Program contract holders
1996
Brorsen, B.W. | Garrison, C. | Adam, B.D. | Dicks, M.R.
A major unknown for policy makers and agribusiness decision makers over the next few years is producer land-use intentions as Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts expire. The rate of land returning to crop production, or the recropping rate, is a particular interest because of the potential impact on government program costs and commodity supplies. The Soil and Water Conservation Society conducted a national survey in 1990 to determine what CRP contract holders planned to do with their land when contracts expired. This study shows that the survey suffered from bias for two reasons. First, those returning the survey were different from those not returning the survey. Farmers with larger farms were less likely to return the survey. Second, those that returned the survey and stated their plans for their land were different from those that returned the survey and did not state their plans. Farmers with smaller farms were less likely to state their plans. The survey is adjusted for response bias by predicting the recropping rate of contract holders who did not respond to the survey or to the question. Using national CRP data tapes, together with the survey data, the effects of economic, structural, and demographic variables on recropping intentions are estimated for respondents. Estimates for respondents are used with the same variables for nonrespondents to predict intentions of nonrespondents. Results indicate that several variables available for both respondents and nonrespondents are useful in explaining the rate of recropping. Results indicate that producers controlling 50.3 percent of CRP acres planned to bring their land back into production versus 52.7 percent found by previous work. Thus, the net bias is small.
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