Optimal oil stockpiling, peak oil, and general equilibrium: case study of South Asia (oil importers) and Middle East (oil supplier)
2020
Anser, Muhammad Khalid | Abbas, Qaiser | Chaudhry, Imran Sharif | Khan, Arman
Optimal stockpiling is the best possible strategy to overcome the problem of peak oil periods of oil producer economies. We measured the properties of strategic petroleum oil reserve and general equilibrium and its peak oil effects. Measured the optimized scales of SPR through using oil price model, global oil market, and depletion effects of oil production classification. The peak oil period occurs from the interection between the geological era, proficiency in a practical skill, economy of consumers, and geopolitics, and the quality of deciding of demand and supply in which we have done a general dynamic balance model. Results reveal that peak oil time periods may lead towards diverse oil prices time profiles, economic development, and commodity flows. Interestingly, the macroeconomic effects of peak oil and the trajectories in objective function of two options maximize the households’ welfare and oil revenues and its effect on growth trajectories of oil-consuming countries. If an oil supply disruption happens, the rate of oil acquisition will be considerably decreased, though it may not be a good strategy to interrupt the activities of oil reserve with the aim of minimizing the overall costs.
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