Novel pests and technologies: risk assessment in agroecosystems using simple models in the face of uncertainties
2011
Ives, Anthony R | Schellhorn, Nancy A
Biosecurity relies on ecological risk assessment to evaluate alternative technologies and regulations, and to design adaptive management strategies and mitigations. In familiar modes of risk assessment, such as that performed in the insurance industry, vast amounts of appropriate data are available to precisely bound risks. In contrast, biosecurity issues revolve around novel pests and technologies that have little or no historic precedents. Therefore, a central feature of most ecological threats is the absence of essential data, yet risk assessment must be done despite uncertainty. We believe that scientists investigating biosecurity risks should use simple models that are designed to give an understanding of the problems at hand, and should focus on assessment rather than prediction. Although they may not make detailed quantitative predictions, simple models can nonetheless be used to discover and frame the threats, and provide qualitative comparisons among strategies to manage them. Simple models can be used like verbal arguments by experts, but they are less prone to confusion and mistakes. We illustrate the value of simple models using the example of the evolution of insect pest resistance to transgenic, insecticidal crops.
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