A nonlinear spatio-temporal lumping of radar rainfall for modeling multi-step-ahead inflow forecasts by data-driven techniques
2016
Chang, Fi-John | Tsai, Meng-Jung
Accurate multi-step-ahead inflow forecasting during typhoon periods is extremely crucial for real-time reservoir flood control. We propose a spatio-temporal lumping of radar rainfall for modeling inflow forecasts to mitigate time-lag problems and improve forecasting accuracy. Spatial aggregation of radar cells is made based on the sub-catchment partitioning obtained from the Self-Organizing Map (SOM), and then flood forecasting is made by the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models coupled with a 2-staged Gamma Test (2-GT) procedure that identifies the optimal non-trivial rainfall inputs. The Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan is used as a case study. The results show that the proposed methods can, in general, precisely make 1- to 4-hour-ahead forecasts and the lag time between predicted and observed flood peaks could be mitigated. The constructed ANFIS models with only two fuzzy if-then rules can effectively categorize inputs into two levels (i.e. high and low) and provide an insightful view (perspective) of the rainfall–runoff process, which demonstrate their capability in modeling the complex rainfall–runoff process. In addition, the confidence level of forecasts with acceptable error can reach as high as 97% at horizon t+1 and 77% at horizon t+4, respectively, which evidently promotes model reliability and leads to better decisions on real-time reservoir operation during typhoon events.
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