A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts | Un cadre pour tester la capacité des modèles à anticiper le changement climatique et ses impacts
2014
Refsgaard, Jens Christian | Madsen, Henrik | Andréassian, Vazken | Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten | Davidson, Thomas A. | Drews, Martin | Hamilton, David, P. | Jeppesen, Erik | Kjellström, Erik | Olesen, Jorgen, E. | Sonnenborg, Torben, Obel | Trolle, Dennis | Willems, Patrick | Christensen, Jens, Hesselbjerg | Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) | DHI [Siège] | Hydrosystèmes et Bioprocédés (UR HBAN) ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) | Danmarks Tekniske Universitet = Technical University of Denmark (DTU) | Aarhus University [Aarhus] | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO HAMILTON NZL ; Partenaires IRSTEA ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) | Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) | KULEUVEN LEUVEN BEL ; Partenaires IRSTEA ; Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) | Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]ARCEAU
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Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]anglais. Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential splitsample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
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