Environmental Pollution Prediction of NOx by Predictive Modelling and Process Analysis in Natural Gas Turbine Power Plants

The main objective of this paper is to propose K-Nearest-Neighbor (KNN) algorithm for predicting NOx emissions from natural gas electrical generation turbines. The process of producing electricity is dynamic and rapidly changing due to many factors such as weather and electrical grid requirements. Gas turbine equipment are also a dynamic part of the electricity generation since the equipment characteristics and thermodynamics behavior change as turbines age and equipment degrade gradually. Regular maintenance of turbines are also another dynamic part of the electrical generation process, affecting performance of equipment as parts and components may be upgraded over time. This analysis discovered using KNN, trained on a relatively small dataset produces the most accurate prediction rates in comparison with larger historical datasets. This observation can be explained as KNN finds the historical K nearest neighbor to the current input parameters and approximates a rated average of similar observations as prediction. This paper incorporates ambient weather conditions, electrical output as well as turbine performance factors to build a machine learning model predicting NOx emissions. The model can be used to optimize the operational processes for harmful emissions reduction and increasing overall operational efficiency. Latent algorithms such as Principle Component Algorithms (PCA) have been used for monitoring the equipment performance behavior change which deeply influences process paraments and consequently determines NOx emissions. Typical statistical methods of performance evaluations such as multivariate analysis, clustering and residual analysis have been used throughout the paper. This paper incorporates ambient weather conditions, electrical output as well as turbine performance factors to build a machine learning model predicting NOx emissions. The model can be used to optimize the operational processes for harmful emissions reduction and increasing overall operational efficiency. Latent algorithms such as Principle Component Algorithms (PCA) have been used for monitoring the equipment performance behavior change which deeply influences process paraments and consequently determines NOx emissions. Typical statistical methods of performance evaluations such as multivariate analysis, clustering and residual analysis have been used throughout the paper.