Economic optimization of surveillance in livestock production chains

Abstract Hazard surveillance in livestock production chains is an essential activity that is usually conducted by surveillance organizations. Its importance has been highlighted by the major crises that occurred in the field of livestock production and food safety during the last decades. Although extensive research has been conducted to achieve surveillance improvement in livestock production chains, they have limitations in terms of coverage of economic aspects and in the level of detail in modelling the interactions between hazard dynamics and surveillance activities. Hence, the dissertation aims to (1) improve the understanding of hazard surveillance in livestock production chains from an economic perspective, and (2) to apply the obtained knowledge for better model-based in-depth analysis of livestock hazard surveillance. In this thesis, we first presents a conceptual framework for the economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems in livestock production chains which differs from most of the previous research focusing on the technical aspect of livestock hazard surveillance. We conclude that that the conceptual approach is scientifically credible for economic analysis of single-hazard surveillance systems and that the applicability of the approach critically depends on data availability. Then we present a conceptual framework for the economic optimization of a surveillance- portfolio consisting of multiple livestock hazards to survey. This framework applies the portfolio perspective to investigate the surveillance resource allocation problem, which is beyond the state of art that mainly focuses on single hazard surveillance analyses. The credibility and practicability of the framework were also checked. To demonstrate the usefulness of the developed frameworks, two case studies are conducted. We applied the single-hazard surveillance framework to conduct a comprehensive economic analysis of classical swine fever (CSF) surveillance in the Netherlands. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis show that the alternative surveillance setups with “PCR on rendered animals” are effective for the moderately virulent CSF strain, whereas the surveillance setups with “routine serology in slaughterhouses” or “routine serology on sow farms” are effective for the low virulent strain. Moreover, the current CSF surveillance system in the Netherlands is cost-effective for both moderately virulent and low virulent CSF strains. The results of the cost-benefit analysis for the moderately virulent CSF strain indicate that the current surveillance system in the Netherlands is adequate. From an economic perspective, there is little to be gained from intensifying surveillance. We also applied the surveillance-portfolio analysis framework to conduct economic optimization of a pig-hazard surveillance-portfolio, consisting of five pig-related hazards, in a Dutch food company. We draw the conclusion that surveillance organizations need to use a portfolio perspective to guide their surveillance resource allocation. This is because the case clearly shows that arbitrarily allocating surveillance resource can cause efficiency losses (either in terms of higher surveillance costs or low SP performance).