Understanding farms trajectories methods to build sustainable futures on pioneer fronts: Lessons from a systematic literature review and a framework proposal

Context: On pioneer fronts, the new spatial-temporal evolution of agriculture needs to be understood to help farmers find their way to conciliate food production and forest conservation. Analyzing farm trajectories is consequently critical for designing such futures and to assess their commitments with agroecology principles. Objective: Based on the analysis of the literature on farm trajectories and pathways we proposed a renewed analytical framework to analyze farm trajectories in pioneer fronts and support the identification of desirable strategies for the future. Methods: A systematic review adapted from the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) methodology was used. From an initial record of 246 papers, 81 were selected as eligible for the review. The articles were classified in six categories according to three criteria: i) the retrospective or prospective analysis of farm trajectories, ii) the consideration or not of the territorial scale (drawing lessons at territorial scale), iii) the use or not of modeling tools. We also explored whether off-farm factors (such as existing infrastructure at territorial scale or access to credit) and intra-farm factors (such as the organization of family work and the role of women within this organization) were considered since these factors affect farms trajectories in pioneer fronts. Results and conclusions: Results indicate that the concept of trajectory is mainly associated with retrospective analyses while the concept of pathway is mostly associated with prospective studies generally using simulation tools for the design of future scenarios. The link between trajectories and agroecological principles also has been little explored in the literature. Both retrospective and prospective studies fail to pay sufficient attention to the roles of women and family organization. Lastly, most of the methodologies studied do not fully consider the effects of off-farm territorial factors and public policies on these trajectories. We propose an analytical framework that would address these limitations. Significance: This framework is currently used in Brazilian and Colombian Amazon and will help defining sustainable farm trajectories limiting deforestation. Such a framework is needed to support farm development on pioneer fronts and broadly in territories that must deal with highly critical environmental agendas.