Sensitivity of simulated soil water content, evapotranspiration, gross primary production and biomass to climate change factors in Euro-Mediterranean grasslands
2023
Bellocchi, Gianni | Barcza, Z. | Hollós, R. | Acutis, M. | Bottyán, E. | Doro, L. | Hidy, D. | Lellei-Kovács, E. | Ma, S. | Minet, J. | Pacskó, V. | Perego, A. | Ruget, F. | Seddaiu, G. | Wu, L. | Sándor, R. | Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP) ; VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) | Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZU) | Hungarian Research Network (HUN-REN) | Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI) | Università degli Studi di Sassari = University of Sassari [Sassari] (UNISS) | Blackland Research Center | Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences | MTA Centre for Ecological Research [Tihany] ; Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA) | Tottori University | Arlon Campus Environnement [ex. Fondation Universitaire Luxembourgeoise] = Arlon Environment Campus ; Université de Liège - Faculté des sciences appliquées (ULIEGE FSA) ; Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège)-Université de Liège = University of Liège = Universiteit van Luik = Universität Lüttich (ULiège) | Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH) ; Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | Lechner Knowledge Center | Rothamsted Research ; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) | the MACSUR (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security) Science-Policy Knowledge Forum (MACSUR SciPol Pilot), June 2021-December 2022, - the INRAE metaprogramme “Climate change in agriculture and forests: Adaptation and mitigation” (CLIMAE). the MACSUR pilot, which received funding in 2012 by a multi-partner call of the Joint Programming Initiative ‘FACCE JPI’ through national financing bodies.- the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA K104816, OTKA PD115637), the Sz´echenyi 2020 programme,- the European Regional Development Fund and the Hungarian Government (GINOP-2.3.2–15–2016–00028)- the BioVeL project (Biodiversity Virtual e-Laboratory Project, FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2011–2, project number 283359), - the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change (RRF-2.3.1–21–2022–00014) project,- the Italian Ministry of Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies,-the Cabinet of the French Community of Belgium, and the metaprogramme “Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change” (AAFCC) of the former French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA).- Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the KDP-2021 funding scheme.- the TKP2021-NKTA-06 project that has been implemented with the support provided by the Ministry of Innovation and Technology of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the [TKP2021-NKTA] funding scheme.- the French-Hungarian bilateral partnership through the BALATON (N◦ 44703TF)/T´eT (2019–2.1.11-T´ET-2019–00031) programme.- grant "Advanced research supporting the forestry and wood-processing sector´s adaptation to global change and the 4th industrial revolution", No. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803 financed by OP RDE".
International audience
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]anglais. Grassland models often yield more uncertain outputs than arable crop models due to more complex interactions and the largely undocumented sensitivity of grassland models to environmental factors. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of single-factor changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric [CO2] on simulated soil water content (SWC), actual evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary production (GPP) and yield biomass, and also to link the sensitivity analysis with experimental results. We employed an unprecedented multi-model framework consisting of seven grassland models at nine sites with different environmental characteristics in Europe and Israel, with two management options at three sites. For warming/cooling and wetting/drying, models showed general consistency in the direction of SWC and ET changes, but less agreement regarding GPP and biomass changes. The simulated responses consistently revealed an overall positive effect of CO2 enrichment on GPP and biomass, while the direction of change differed for SWC and ET. Comparing with single factor experimental manipulations, SWC simulations slightly underestimated the observed effect of warming,while the overall mean model sensitivity for biomass (+7.5%) closely matched the mean response observed with 1–2 ◦C warming (+6.6%). The models exhibited lower sensitivity of SWC to wetting or drying compared to the experiments. The overall mean sensitivity of biomass to drying was -4.3%, contrasting with the mean experimental effect size of -9.6%, which proved to be more realistic than the mean wetting effect (+3.2%, against +38.9% in the field trials). The simulated sensitivity of SWC to CO2 enrichment was markedly underestimated, while the biomass response (+12.0%) closely matched the observations (+17.5%). Although the multi-model averaging did not manifestly improve the realism of the simulations, it ensured a realistic response in the direction of change to varying conditions. The results suggest a paradigm shift in grassland modelling meaning that the usual practice of model optimisation/validation needs to be complemented by a sensitivity analysis following
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Mots clés AGROVOC
Informations bibliographiques
Cette notice bibliographique a été fournie par Institut national de la recherche agronomique
Découvrez la collection de ce fournisseur de données dans AGRIS