Exploring Offshore Wind Development in Norway Through Heuristic Modelling

Global warming continues to be a significant humanitarian concern and Norway is committed to becoming climate-neutral by 2050. To achieve this, Norway has set a target of developing 30 GW of offshore wind power on the Norwegian continental shelf, aiming to become a leading nation in offshore wind. Incorporating 30 GW of offshore wind power into the Norwegian power system necessitates substantial development of the power system due to the intermittent nature of wind power compared to the more stable hydropower generation. This thesis investigates the deployment of offshore wind power in the Norwegian power system through heuristic scenario analysis. The study aims to determine the optimal configuration and necessary modifications to the Norwegian power systems for integrating the targeted 30 GW offshore wind power. The scenario analysis uses the open energy system model PyPSA-Eur to create an isolated model of the Nordic power system. In the scenario analysis, optimal offshore wind deployment is examined for three fundamental power system parameters: Line expansion, generator capacity expansions, and electricity demand. The findings show that offshore wind DC is the preferred choice over offshore wind AC for Norway to achieve its target of 30 GW offshore wind power, in terms of cost optimisation, sufficient electricity generation, and fulfilment of the target. Furthermore, the scenario analysis shows that, with an anticipated 50% increase in electricity demand from current levels, the optimal transmission capacity expansion is 48.3%, a substantial increase from the current power grid system. The findings align with Statnett's system development plan, which includes substantial investments in grid infrastructure. Furthermore, the results reveal that from a purely isolated perspective of the Norwegian power system decoupled from the rest of Europe, there is no significant incentive for Norway to develop offshore wind. On the contrary, the results indicate that onshore wind is more favourable. This highlights the interregional role of Norway in the development of offshore wind in the North Sea. The model has several limitations that could be addressed in future research. First, sector coupling can be considered and electricity demand assumptions can be improved. Additionally, the scope can be extended to include the North Sea countries to accurately assess power flow and the potential of an interconnected network. In conclusion, the results show that with optimal capacity expansion and strategic development of offshore wind, Norway can achieve its target of 30 GW offshore wind capacity. This will allow Norway to meet its offshore wind ambition and advance toward climate neutrality, contributing to the broader European effort.