Impact costs due to climate change along the coasts of Catalonia
2023
Lomelí Quintero, Víctor Manuel | Calderón Vega, Felícitas | Mösso Aranda, César | Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín | García Soto, Adrián-David | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Doctorat en Ciències del Mar | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LIM/UPC - Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima
Climate change is an increasingly critical issue impacting coasts and coast structures, leading to erosion, flooding, sea level rise, etc. These significantly impact not only the environment and society, but also the regional infrastructure and economy. This study focused on assessing the costs associated with climate change along the coast of Catalonia. An innovative tool in Python called GCIFS (Georeferenced Impact Forecast System) was developed for the assessment, which is based on LiDAR measurements, cartography, and online databases to predict future coastlines and economic impacts. The proposed methodology considered unique beach-specific scenarios, and multiple direction and altitude vectors to identify difficult-to-erode areas and existing protections were generated. Seven approaches based on forecasted sea-level rise with and without coastal geomorphology were applied to 262 beaches. Local impact factors and potential protection, using detailed data on infrastructure and building typology, were included in the cost evaluation, resulting in estimated costs by the year 2100 of EUR 8846.00 million for the worst-case scenario, EUR 3587.36 million for a conservative prediction including geomorphology, and EUR 822.67 million for a prediction based on local erosion and geomorphology. It was concluded that 170,676 m of protection structures is required. The selected approach, technologies, and detailed information are critical for an adequate assessment.
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