Delineating investment opportunities for stakeholders in sorghum seed systems: a logit model perspective

Abstract Background Seed systems are considered as a vehicle through which the sustainable agricultural intensification can be achieved. However, most sub-Saharan African countries have been ineffective to provide sufficient incentives for stakeholders to consistently invest in the seed systems specifically for crops like sorghum. This study was therefore conducted to uncover investment opportunities for stakeholders in the sorghum seed systems to attain an impact-oriented seed production and delivery systems. Results The study applied descriptive statistics, Logit regression model, and Gross margin to analyze possible areas for investments. Descriptive statistics analyzed the percentage of farmers using sorghum improved varieties and sources used to obtained improved variety seeds. Logit regression model was applied to analyze factors correlating with planting of improved seeds. Gross margin was applied to show profitability of growing improved sorghum seeds and grain. Findings revealed that 39.2% of the sampled farmers were growing improved sorghum variety seeds. Farmers obtained improved variety seeds from both informal (57.8%) and formal (42.2%) sources. Logit estimates indicate that variety preference, unavailability of seeds, resistance to diseases, and drought had significant correlation with planting of improved variety seeds. Seed companies and quality declared seed (QDS) producers earned high margin of 53,08,900 Tanzanian Shillings per hectare (TZS/ha, 1 USD = 2315 TZS during the period of data collection) and 33,94,709 TZS/ha, respectively. Farmers using improved variety seed earned higher margin (8,19,805 TZS/ha) than farmers who did not use improved variety seeds (3,17,373 TZS/ha) Conclusions The identified investment opportunities were increasing number of farmers using improved variety seeds that would drive increased production, distribution, and marketing of quality seed. The large number of farmers still sourcing seed from the informal channel provides avenue to reach out to these farmers through demand creation and wide variety popularization meeting farmer preferences. The huge margin seed producers make provides good incentive to drive private seed companies and individual seed entrepreneurs to make sustainable business out of sorghum seed. The policy implications for reviving sorghum production and productivity are further discussed.