Effects of Climate Change on Climate Suitability of Green Orange Planting in Hainan Island, China

Hainan Island is endowed with unique climatic and geographical conditions in China. Green orange is a characteristic fruit and plays an important role in local agricultural production of the island. However, few studies have been available regarding the climatic suitability index of green orange planting suitable regions in the island. Based on 30 years (1980 to 2019) of climatic data from 19 meteorological stations in the island, this study established spatial analysis models with topographical data, land use and GIS spatial analysis. Based on climate suitability function, this study established the climate suitability models of temperature, sunshine, precipitation, accumulated temperature and comprehensive suitability model for green orange planting. The Climate suitability index model for green orange planting suitable zoning areas was developed using a natural point segmentation method, and future climate change scenarios were adopted for evaluating the trends of climate suitable areas. The results revealed that the most suitable areas for planting green orange are mainly located at the eastern central region in the island. The climate suitability index ranged from 0.9 to 1.0 in the most suitable regions. The suitable area is mainly distributed in the eastern part, most of the central and western parts of the island, with the climate suitability index ranging from 0.7–0.9. However, the population density in the area is large, and the planting land is limited. The sub-suitable area is mainly located in the coastal areas of the western island, and the high-altitude areas in the central and western regions of the island, with the climate suitability index varying from 0.4 to 0.7. The unsuitable area is mainly distributed in the central mountainous area, with the climate suitability index being 0.0–0.4. The suitability of temperature showed decreasing trend, and the suitability of precipitation gradually moved from the east to the central region under future climate change scenarios. This study is helpful in promoting the development and utilization of agricultural resources and the fine zoning of green orange planting climate suitability in the island.